01
We do not know why attendance is softer.
What we see
- Reports of softer attendance at the flagship over recent seasons.
Next step
- Reconstruct the last three years of reservation data as a baseline before changing format.
Prepared by HILMY
The Next Decade · Working Document
Roma Norte · Ciudad de México
Lorea has a demand problem whose cause has not yet been diagnosed. This document frames the questions and tests needed to answer it.
Prepared for Oswaldo Oliva · Confidential
The question
What should Lorea become in its next decade?
The tenth anniversary, softer attendance, changing guest behavior, a shifting competitive field, and a lease decision all point to the same question.
We do not yet know why attendance has softened. This document does not claim to.
This version sharpens the question and names what must be measured before it can be answered.
Issues
What we know, and what to test next.
Each point pairs an observation with the next step it deserves.
02
The public proposition is unclear.
What we see
- The website explains philosophy and menu in depth.
- The reason to choose Lorea over another expensive evening in Mexico City is not sharply stated.
Next step
- Rewrite the top of the reservation journey around a concrete offer and measure conversion.
03
The digital reservation journey looks unmaintained.
What we see
- The website and booking channels give the impression of inconsistent upkeep, which may erode confidence before the kitchen is involved.
Next step
- Audit the reservation journey and fix the highest-friction defects.
04
The real competition is unknown.
What we see
- Pujol and Quintonil are cited as benchmarks, but there is no evidence they are the rooms taking Lorea's bookings.
Next step
- Interview booked and lapsed guests; ask what else they considered for the same evening.
05
The portfolio strategy is unproven.
What we see
- Alelí and Antesala have distinct public propositions.
- Their economics, guest overlap, and cross-selling have not been verified.
Next step
- Measure cross-visitation and per-concept contribution before assigning portfolio roles.
06
There is no shared commercial baseline.
What we see
- Capacity, released inventory, occupancy, average spend, contribution, and repeat behavior have not been consolidated into one view.
Next step
- Build the baseline first. Delay format decisions until it exists.
07
The property timeline is pressing.
What we see
- The lease decision and a possible acquisition are approaching in the same window as the ten-year anniversary.
Next step
- Preserve lease and acquisition optionality while the format work is completed.
08
Social and content performance is unmeasured.
What we see
- Posting volume is visible on public channels.
- There is no evidence that content is reaching the right audience or converting into reservations.
Next step
- Complete a social audit with native analytics before drawing content conclusions.
Decisions
Separate questions, not competing plans.
Format, property, and growth are different questions. They can be combined; they do not cancel each other out.
| Question | Options |
|---|---|
| Format | Tasting only · Hybrid · Abbreviated menu · À la carte · Events-led |
| Capacity | Current · Fewer released seats · Physical downsizing |
| Schedule | Six nights · Concentrated services · Seasonal |
| Property | Renew · Extend · Purchase · Relocate |
| Building use | Single flagship · Multiple concepts · Partial rental · Mixed use |
| Portfolio model | Independent concepts · Shared platform · Consolidated group |
| Growth | Optimize current site · Residencies · Products · Events · Another location |
Any final direction is a combination of choices, made after the baseline exists.
Recommendation
Hold the decision. Build the baseline first.
Keep optionality open while completing a commercial baseline and testing variations in inventory, booking commitment, menu format, schedule, and messaging.
Keep
- Property optionality.
- The distinction between Lorea and its sister concepts.
- The anniversary opportunity.
- The possibility that scarcity and ticketing could strengthen the flagship.
- Owned guest relationships.
Still open
Seat counts, occupancy thresholds, contribution improvements, and sales scenarios are hypotheses to test, not conclusions.
Property
A real-estate decision, kept separate.
Buying, renewing, or leaving the building is a real-estate decision. It should not stand in for a brand or operating decision. Before deciding:
- Purchase price, financing terms, and structural review.
- Zoning, permitted uses, and redevelopment potential.
- Landlord flexibility and remaining lease term.
- What ownership would enable that a longer lease would not — and the value of an alternative property.
Ownership may be the right answer. We do not yet have the information to say.
Method
What this document is and is not.
Prepared from public materials only. No financial, reservation, guest, lease, or property data has been reviewed.
Any number is illustrative, not derived from Lorea's economics. Treat every figure as a hypothesis to test.
Limitations
- No financial, reservation, guest, lease, or property data reviewed.
- No interviews with team or guests conducted.
- No number should be read as a measurement.
Naming these limits makes the next version more useful.